More in Common published this Westminster MRP on 4 January 2026, using fieldwork conducted from 27 November to 16 December 2025.
UKDecides reproduces the national vote shares and modelled seat totals published by More in Common.
WESTMINSTER MRP
More in Common — 27 November–16 December 2025
More in Common’s January 2026 Westminster MRP, based on 16,083 British adults.
What it means
Reform UK has an overall majority with 381 seats, 55 above the 326-seat threshold.
SEAT ESTIMATE
Modelled seats
All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.
MODEL RESULTS
Published result
Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.
| Party | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 21% | 70 |
| Labour | 20% | 85 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11% | 35 |
| Reform UK | 31% | 381 |
| Green | 12% | 9 |
| SNP | 3% | 40 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1% | 5 |
| Other | 2% | 6 |
MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.
Source: Original MRP publication