Electoral Calculus published this Westminster MRP using polling conducted by Find Out Now for PLMR. The headline result incorporates the tactical-voting adjustment used in the original publication.
WESTMINSTER MRP
Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now — 23–30 June 2026
Westminster MRP by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for PLMR, based on 5,545 GB adults.
What it means
Hung parliament. Labour largest party, 109 seats short of an overall majority.
SEAT ESTIMATE
Modelled seats
All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.
MODEL RESULTS
Published result
Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.
| Party | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 20% | 151 |
| Labour | 22% | 217 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11% | 72 |
| Reform UK | 22% | 127 |
| Green | 10% | 30 |
| SNP | 3% | 28 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1% | 3 |
| Restore Britain | 7% | 1 |
| Other | 3% | 3 |
MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.
Source: Original MRP publication