YouGov published this Westminster MRP on 24 September 2026. UKDecides reproduces the central national vote-share estimates and central seat estimates stated in YouGov’s publication.
WESTMINSTER MRP
YouGov — 23 August–18 September 2026
YouGov’s September 2026 Westminster MRP, based on fieldwork with nearly 17,000 Britons.
What it means
Hung parliament. Labour largest party, 85 seats short of an overall majority.
SEAT ESTIMATE
Modelled seats
All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.
MODEL RESULTS
Published result
Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.
| Party | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 21% | 130 |
| Labour | 24% | 241 |
| Liberal Democrat | 12% | 71 |
| Reform UK | 22% | 123 |
| Green | 12% | 9 |
| SNP | — | 40 |
| Plaid Cymru | — | 15 |
MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.
Source: Original MRP publication