WESTMINSTER MRP
Westminster MRP for PLMR, based on 6,699 GB adults, projecting 353 Labour seats.
SEAT ESTIMATE
All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.
MODEL RESULTS
Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.
| Party | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 18% | 90 |
| Labour | 28% | 353 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10% | 70 |
| Reform UK | 21% | 81 |
| Green | 9% | 4 |
| SNP | 3% | 28 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1% | 5 |
| Restore Britain | 8% | 1 |
| Other | 2% | 0 |
MRP estimates are modelled results, not constituency polls or a UK Decides forecast. SNP, Plaid Cymru and other parties appear where separate figures are available in our records. A dash means unavailable, not zero. The original publication defines whether the model covers Great Britain or the whole UK, and how Northern Ireland seats are handled. Other is reproduced as the source reports it.
Electoral Calculus published this Westminster MRP on 16 October 2026, using Find Out Now fieldwork for PLMR. The headline projection includes the pollster’s tactical-voting adjustment and gives Labour a majority of 56.
Without that adjustment, the model projects Labour on 344 seats, Reform UK on 86 and the Conservatives on 85. This study is recorded separately from the national voting-intention poll of polls.
Original release and methodology · Data tables and constituency estimates
Source: Original MRP publication