Convergent Opinion conducted this Westminster MRP using a sample of 10,919 GB adults. UKDecides shows the national figures explicitly published in Convergent’s release; parties without a published headline seat figure are left blank rather than inferred.
WESTMINSTER MRP
Convergent Opinion — 25–30 July 2026
Convergent Opinion’s July 2026 Westminster MRP, based on 10,919 GB adults.
What it means
Hung parliament. Labour largest party, 81 seats short of an overall majority.
SEAT ESTIMATE
Modelled seats
All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.
MODEL RESULTS
Published result
Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.
| Party | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 21% | 99 |
| Labour | 26% | 245 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11% | 67 |
| Reform UK | 23% | 174 |
| Green | 10% | — |
MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.
Source: Original MRP publication