Electoral Calculus published this Westminster MRP using polling conducted by Find Out Now for PLMR. The headline result incorporates the tactical-voting adjustment used in the original publication.
WESTMINSTER MRP
Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now — 1–8 December 2025
Westminster MRP by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now for PLMR, based on 5,596 GB adults.
What it means
Reform UK has an overall majority with 335 seats, 9 above the 326-seat threshold.
SEAT ESTIMATE
Modelled seats
All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.
MODEL RESULTS
Published result
Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.
| Party | Vote share | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 21% | 92 |
| Labour | 17% | 41 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11% | 60 |
| Reform UK | 31% | 335 |
| Green | 12% | 52 |
| SNP | 3% | 44 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1% | 4 |
| Your Party | 2% | 4 |
| Other | 2% | 0 |
MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.
Source: Original MRP publication