UKDecides

WESTMINSTER MRP

Survation — 20 August–4 September 2026

Fieldwork20 August–4 September 2026
Sample8,124
Commissioner38 Degrees

Survation Westminster MRP for 38 Degrees, based on 8,124 adults.

What it means Hung parliament. Labour largest party, 54 seats short of an overall majority.

SEAT ESTIMATE

Modelled seats

Labour
272
Reform UK
153
Conservative
85
Liberal Democrat
69
SNP
40
Plaid Cymru
8
Green
3

All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.

MODEL RESULTS

Published result

Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.

PartyVote shareSeats
Conservative — 85
Labour 28% 272
Liberal Democrat — 69
Reform UK 24% 153
Green — 3
SNP — 40
Plaid Cymru — 8

MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.

Survation conducted this Westminster MRP on behalf of 38 Degrees. The model uses fieldwork from 20 August to 4 September 2026.

Where the source article does not state a national party vote share explicitly, UKDecides leaves that cell blank rather than infer it.

Source: Original MRP publication