UKDecides

WESTMINSTER MRP

Survation — 22–27 July 2026

Fieldwork22–27 July 2026
Sample10,014
CommissionerHOPE not hate

Survation Westminster MRP for HOPE not hate, based on 10,014 GB adults.

What it means Hung parliament. Reform UK largest party, 99 seats short of an overall majority.

SEAT ESTIMATE

Modelled seats

Reform UK
227
Labour
197
Liberal Democrat
72
Conservative
71
SNP
46
Plaid Cymru
9
Other
5
Green
4

All MRP charts use the same 0–650 seat scale. The vertical marker shows the 326-seat threshold for an overall majority.

MODEL RESULTS

Published result

Vote share and seat totals are reproduced from the original MRP publication where supplied.

PartyVote shareSeats
Conservative 19.8% 71
Labour 25.9% 197
Liberal Democrat 11.3% 72
Reform UK 26.3% 227
Green 10.3% 4
SNP 3.1% 46
Plaid Cymru 1.0% 9
Other 2.4% 5

MRP estimates are modelled estimates, not constituency polls or a UKDecides forecast.

Survation conducted this Westminster MRP for HOPE not hate using fieldwork from 22 to 27 July 2026, modelled across 631 constituencies.

The figures shown are from Survation’s published MRP model and accompanying results.

Source: Original MRP publication